民望透支


Bruce Head因為奧巴馬,華盛頓非常熱鬧,國會山莊一帶,萬人空巷,爭相見證歷史。此情此景,令我想起幾十年前,時維文革初期,「偉大領袖」在天安門接見百萬雄師,極目所及,盡是一片紅海,何其壯觀。

當然,奧巴馬是民選總統,不是暴君,後者最愛妖言惑眾;美國人也不是紅衛兵,懂得獨立思考。他們一致擁護奧巴馬,足見其深得民心,絕無花假。問題是,奧巴馬剛剛上台,毫無政績可言,卻享有極高民望,這是「透支」得來,如果將來交不出政績,民望勢必急挫。

有一個現成例子。馬英九去年以高票當選,予人憧憬,經濟可以「馬上好」。但一場金融海嘯,台灣經濟大受衝擊;加權指數由最高九千點,跌到最近四千點。馬英九的民望亦緊隨其後,由上任初期的六成六,不斷下滑,最低跌到三成七,完全不合格,令人失望。

相比於馬英九,奧巴馬面對的挑戰更大:既要振興國內經濟,又要修補陸鄰關係,更要調停以巴衝突,都是棘手問題。奧巴馬日前表示,萬大事以經濟為先,並推出八千億美元的救市方案,連同前朝剩下的二千億,合計一萬億。效果如何,難以預料,但濫發鈔票,肯定會加深美元危機,後果可大可小。

透支民望,跟透支現金一樣,終歸要還,且是連本帶利。前路難行,惟有祝奧巴馬好運。

原文刊於AM730 09年1月23日號P.4「新國富論」欄。

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民望透支” 有 16 則迴響

  1. 馬英九應該是個好人,品格也比上任總統陳水扁高一萬倍。只可惜,好人和品格好,和有否搞好經濟的力沒有直接關系。

    奧巴馬是個聰明的人,也有個個比馬英九下屬們強很多的超級內閣。雖然我不敢說他會否成功,但起碼他有成功的可能性。

  2. 是的,奧巴馬的本錢比馬英九多,但面對的問題,也較馬英九複雜,甚至較羅斯福當年的為複雜。

    羅斯福在一九三三年上台,那時大蕭條已有四年,離復甦不遠,算是行運醫生醫病尾。

  3. 這篇的經濟成分不多呢,似乎寫什麼都可以?XD
    「馬上好」取其語帶雙關,現在可以取「馬英九上任期內有所進步」之意(如果最後一年才海嘯就比較不幸了)。

  4. hevangel:

    身為領袖,人品好是基本要求,再進一步,是有料到。

    董建華或許人品好,但肯定無料到。馬英九也是人品好,但有無料到,現在言之尚早。

  5. 紀號士:

    所謂「似乎寫什麼都可以」,是甚麼意思?

    你是指我在「新國富論」這個號稱經濟專欄內,可以寫一些「經濟成分不多」的文章?

    如果是這個意思,無錯,我的確可以寫甚麼都可以,相比於之前某些文章,這篇的「經濟成分」算是比較多了。

  6. 記號士

    >你是指我在「新國富論」這個號稱經濟專欄內,可以寫一些「經濟成分不多」的文章?

    對啊^^
    我以為這專欄會限於經濟題目,加上多次運用歸納法,近來似乎有些反例,禁不住好奇一問:)

  7. The reason Obama had two million or so people at his inauguration was mostly because there were 8 years of Bush. There were wide spread support of Obama from the regular Joe and Jane (the ones that donated $5 or $10 to his campaign) and they felt that he is their President. Plus Obama is a great speaker and it would have been nice to be there to experience history and to be a witness. A friend of mine took the day off and bought his family to listen to the speech live and he said it was totally worth it (the line up, packed crowd, etc).

    Now, I think I feel a little bit sorry 🙂 for you that the first thing you thought of was Mao in Cultural Revolution time. Ah, but I suppose what you thought of might have been affected by your readership, so I don’t fault you. 🙂

  8. kempton:

    謝謝留言。

    為甚麼我會想起老毛?好簡單,因為老毛的民望,是靠洗腦得來,故不是真民望,是假民望。

    相反,奧巴馬不是暴君,沒有對國民洗腦,卻享有極高的民望,證明他真真正正的眾望所歸。

    我在文中提及老毛,是以他的假民望,來突顯奧巴馬的真民望,而非借老毛諷刺奧巴馬。

    假若閣下抽空再看一次本文,不難發現以下一句:

    「當然,奧巴馬是民選總統,不是暴君,後者最愛妖言惑眾;美國人也不是紅衛兵,懂得獨立思考。他們一致擁護奧巴馬,足見其深得民心,絕無花假。」

    看畢以上引文,閣下還會覺得你我觀點有別嗎?

  9. Dear Bruce,

    I saw you write “當然,奧巴馬是民選總統,不是暴君 …" the first time I read it. What I felt sad about is “… the first thing you thought of was Mao in Cultural Revolution time". Where as for me, while I know how bad Mao was, when I saw Obama won and him at his inauguration, all I could think of was — “Finally, Bush 43 is over!" Obama can start to reverse some of Bush 43’s decisions and actions.

    There are many parts of Obama’s inauguration speech that basically tell Bush 43 how wrong he had been, to his face!

    Again, may be it is because you are in HK, or may be you wrote it for your readers (as I said “… I suppose what you thought of might have been affected by your readership …"), but you thought of Mao and I felt sad.

    While I have no intention to enter into a debate about Mao. But I think China can be changed without dealing or sorting out the “Mao baggage" right at the start.

    Whereas some people (few of my friends including) feel that correcting people’s views about Mao is critical to moving China forward.

    P.S. I never thought you were using Mao to “諷刺奧巴馬".

  10. 我始終不明白你為何會覺得sad?

    比方說,你看,阿甲出貓才拿到一百分,阿乙不用出貓,就輕易拿到一百分,阿乙真係厲害。有甚麼好sad?

    至於破除老毛情意結,第一步是讓國民知道,老毛到底做過甚麼。上一代之所以吃盡苦頭,到底是誰的錯。但國內沒有學術自由,歷史被扭曲得面目全非,跟日本極右教科書相若,真係無辦法。

    另,如果你有看前文《奧巴馬與羅斯福》,我有提過,奧巴馬有高民望,是因為布殊做得太差。

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